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“We shouldn’t gamble on Joe Biden’s low approval rating.” Extremism is a Democratic issue, tooĪll year - and especially in the closing days of the campaign - Democrats cast themselves as a mainstream alternative to the excesses of the GOP. “We cannot risk losing in 2024,” says one ad, part of ’s “#DontRunJoe” campaign. On Wednesday, in an effort described first to POLITICO, a left-wing group that worked in 2020 to persuade progressives to support Biden will start airing digital ads in New Hampshire highlighting Biden’s “extremely low approval rating” and depicting him as a weak incumbent. And though no prominent Democrat is likely to run a serious campaign against Biden, there will be increasing pressure on him, especially from the left, to step aside. He’ll turn 80 this month, and earlier this year, a majority of Democrats polled said they’d prefer someone else to be the party’s nominee.īut one thing Biden did have going for him was the calendar, and the reluctance of Democrats to do anything that might hurt him - and, by extension, the party - ahead of the midterms. His approval rating, hovering around 41 percent, is dismal - and has been all year. But it’s hard to argue that Democrats over-performed on Tuesday because of Biden rather than in spite of him. Presidents who suffered much more punishing midterms went on to win second terms. With Tuesday looking a lot better for Democrats than expected, it’s possible we’ll see some rallying around Biden.

In 2020, Trump carried the state by just more than 3 percentage points. Ron DeSantis, the Republican governor of Florida - and a potential rival to Trump - won reelection in a 20-point landslide. doesn’t have that wind at his back anymore.” That’s not going to be the case in a presidential cycle. But we just have such poor candidates who don’t appeal to a broader base.”īesides, Coughlin said, “This is a non-presidential cycle, which tilts against the White House, tilts against the party in power. If Karrin Taylor Robson was the nominee, it would be an ass-kicking this cycle. “This should be a walk in the park for Republicans. “I mean, come on,” said Chuck Coughlin, a veteran Republican strategist based in Phoenix. Even if she comes back to win, it will be a closer race than political professionals of both parties had predicted had a more traditionalist Republican, Karrin Taylor Robson, made it through. But Kari Lake was running behind Katie Hobbs. In Arizona, it was still early, with only about half of the expected vote in. Mike DeWine, a more traditionalist Republican, put up. But he came nowhere close to the margin that incumbent Gov.

Tim Ryan by a comfortable margin in that state’s U.S. Vance, did better, beating Democratic Rep. Trump’s preferred candidate in Ohio, J.D.

Chris Sununu, who once referred to Trump as “ fucking crazy,” cruised to reelection. Maggie Hassan in a race that didn’t even look close, while Gov. In New Hampshire, Republican Don Bolduc lost to Sen. Brian Kemp, whose resistance to overturning the 2020 results infuriated Trump, easily defeated his Democratic opponent, Stacey Abrams. In Georgia, Herschel Walker was locked in a neck-and-neck contest with Democratic Sen. Just look at how the most Trump-y candidates fared in states where more traditionalist Republicans were on the same ballot. Truth is, if not for the former president’s interventions, the night could have been a lot better for the GOP. Trump is still the dominant figure in the Republican Party, and he’ll be the favorite to win the GOP nomination for president if, as expected, he runs again.īut Trump’s place in the party is far weaker after Tuesday.